Assam Polls: May not be a ‘Cakewalk’ for BJP, says Opinion Polls
GUWAHATI: As the dates of Assam polls are nearing, retaining power in Assam did not appear to be a cakewalk for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) like it has predicted.
While an opinion poll in January this year had given a clear majority to the BJP, the recent one predicted a win for the saffron camp nevertheless but with a very small margin.
In January, the IANS C-Voter ‘Battle for the States’ survey predicted that the BJP would come to power in Assam by winning 77 seats, nine less than its 86 out of the total 126 seats of Assam Assembly in 2016. It had predicted a gain of 14 seats for the Congress-led UPA giving it around 40 seats.
A few days later, the ABP-C-Voter opinion released in the last week of February predicted seats between 68-76 for the NDA while it gave Congress around 43-51 seats.
However, surprisingly, the most recent opinion poll by Times Now-C Voter has predicted BJP’s win in Assam but only with a thin margin over Congress. As per the opinion poll, the BJP may get some 67 seats, just three more than the majority mark of 64; while Congress may win 57, a little short of the majority mark.
For experts, the gradual decline in BJP’s winning margin was attributed to the recent political developments. While BJP and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has a new ally of United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) in the group, Congress has also managed to form its ‘grand alliance’ with at least six major parties of the state including the AIUDF and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).
While the BJP is likely to contest 92 seats, the AGP will have 26 and the UPPL to have 8 seats in its kitty.
In this state poll, both NDA and UPA have set a target of winning more than 100 out of the state’s total 126 seats.
Assam Assembly Elections will be held in three phases – 47 constituencies will go for polls in the first phase on March 27; a total of 39 constituencies will go to polls in the second phase on April 1, and the voters of 40 constituencies will have their final say in the third phase on April 6. The counting of votes will take place on May 2.