The political algorithm of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might turn erroneous in the wake of anti-incumbency wave that is prevailing in the state in the last three years of the saffron party’s rule ahead of the 17th general election.
A possible gloomy political weather for the BJP in the whole Northeast region might a rise as the allies of the BJP in the neighbouring states of Assam has raised voice against the Centre’s move to implement the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016.
Conrad K Sangma-led Meghalaya government, where the BJP is also a partner, has been opposing the bill since its inception while the NDA partners in Mizoram and Nagaland are also not in conformity with the saffron party on the issue.
Currently, the BJP is ruling in Assam, Manipur, Tripura, and Arunachal Pradesh while its allies are ruling in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland.
With the walk out of the regional political party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the BJP has lost support of 14 legislators in the state ahead of the 17 the general election.
AGP has fueled the spirit of Assamese sub-nationalism by stepping out of the alliance with the BJP which also highlighted the relevance of the regional political parties for the greater cause of the indigenous people of the state.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is recognized as a dynamic leader, was perhaps aware of such situation and for which he sounded the bugle for the upcoming Lok Sabha election from a Bengali dominated area – Silchar in Assam by trying to hijack the Bengali sentiments.
The Citizenship bill, National Register of Citizens (NRC) including decision to privatize the historic sites including Kaziranga National Park, Rang Ghar, which is also the oldest amphitheatre of Asia and Kareng Ghar, selling of oil fields etc are the major factors that will be the matters of great concern.
People of the state, who had experienced a bad time during the three consecutive term of Congress rule in the state, had casted votes in favour of the BJP relying on its much hyped slogan ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikash’ and ‘Change’.
PM Modi won the hearts of the people by dubbing the state as ‘astalakshmi’ and played the first card in a Northeastern state by saying that the BJP government would transform the Northeast India as the gateway to the development of the modern India.
Though, the BJP has been eyeing to pocket 25 seats from the Northeast region in the upcoming general election, it’s statistics record in 27 bypolls since 2014 and in the 2018 Assembly elections in five states and the party’s poor performance in the Assam panchayat election held in December last year do not support that.
The party conceded severe defeat in the Hindi heartland Madhya Pradesh (109 seats won out of 230), Rajasthan (73 seats won out of 200) and Chattishgarh (15 seats won out of 90). Besides, the BJP could not even stand in front of the regional power in Telengana and Mizoram.
The Narendra Modi – Amit Shah ‘jodi’ will no longer be invincible especially in Assam as the party has “hurt” the indigenous people of the state by trying to bring in Hindu Bangladeshis and dump them on Assam that is already bearing burden of illegal migrants which entered before 1971.
The views expressed by the author are personal and may not in any way represent those of TIME8.